Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 13.002224 14.860626 16.875862 19.221628 21.875246 24.782164 28.206120
2024-10-20 10.069019 12.513610 15.377201 18.971954 23.356562 28.523162 35.065526
2024-10-27 8.159687 10.705747 13.840357 17.970510 23.255610 29.777389 38.420513
2024-11-03 7.298394 10.037173 13.557424 18.393289 24.841225 33.117546 44.518839
2024-11-10 6.640913 9.513180 13.345001 18.801422 26.337923 36.342401 50.586084
2024-11-17 5.901789 8.779918 12.753917 18.603185 26.948028 38.371570 55.131666
2024-11-24 5.238149 8.071242 12.109871 18.239000 27.247852 39.933820 59.065527
2024-12-01 4.783533 7.614133 11.769782 18.256658 28.055864 42.216072 64.114217
2024-12-08 4.464956 7.325479 11.641635 18.557399 29.272279 45.129206 70.224624
2024-12-15 4.144987 7.000428 11.423094 18.688160 30.218259 47.671592 75.904046
2024-12-22 3.797029 6.595787 11.041990 18.523740 30.676494 49.476778 80.533369
2024-12-29 3.558660 6.347634 10.885119 18.694801 31.658505 52.124358 86.599861
2025-01-05 3.411102 6.246068 10.968258 19.278810 33.371603 56.067458 95.038955
2025-01-12 3.136099 5.899056 10.613604 19.101615 33.812014 57.987255 100.314334
2025-01-19 2.748234 5.314034 9.801553 18.070741 32.723225 57.304266 101.199651
2025-01-26 2.632206 5.213958 9.827738 18.503471 34.175562 60.940983 109.561045
2025-02-02 2.521543 5.113184 9.842444 18.911334 35.601560 64.600946 118.152875
2025-02-09 2.335087 4.850262 9.539255 18.712840 35.919436 66.344711 123.477044
2025-02-16 2.143795 4.560505 9.162561 18.346341 35.898246 67.475116 127.753791
2025-02-23 2.017097 4.388779 8.996329 18.364188 36.586034 69.903416 134.491659
2025-03-02 1.933548 4.297955 8.979277 18.666581 37.825829 73.396122 143.358683
2025-03-09 1.836801 4.170912 8.880290 18.798083 38.739522 76.326024 151.321760
2025-03-16 1.716246 3.982345 8.642688 18.632741 39.056618 78.143102 157.264382